Friday, October 22, 2010

PL sees Nifty slipping to 5750, bets on auto stocks

Nifty may slip to 5750. ?It may take a little more time, spending between a few 100 points here and there or probably it will try and touch something like 5,750 or between 5,800 or so. In terms of Nifty we would probably hold for a while before jumping in, though stock specifically we have been continuously buying,? she added.


However, overall in the medium to long-term, she continues to remain bullish.
Vora is also positive on September quarter results posted by most of the auto stocks.


?From the earnings point of view I feel Bajaj Auto?s numbers would be really good. Mahindra will also have good numbers because in this quarter, most of them benefited out of the slightly softer commodity prices and huge volumes growth. We will remain cautious, in terms of results for Hero Honda and Maruti,? .


Below is a verbatim transcript of her interview. Also watch the accompanying video for more.


Q: Are you buying the Nifty at 6,000 or are you predicting a slightly deeper correction from the small nick that we have had already?


A: It may take a little more time, spending between a few 100 points here and there or probably it will try and touch something like 5,750 or between 5,800 or so. In terms of Nifty we would probably hold for a while before jumping in, though stock specifically we have been continuously buying. Overall in the medium to long-term, we continue to remain bullish.


Q: What have you made of the banking numbers that have come out so far? The numbers have been good but the stocks have been tepid?


A: The first quarter numbers of banking were much above expectations, in terms of net interest margins (NIMs), asset quality and provisioning requirement reducing. But, this quarter results are just in-line with expectations.


If you see the issues going forward, in terms of pension liabilities, banks will have to make third quarter starting huge provisions over the next five years. As we head towards that on the backdrop that the banking sector had run-up so much and also that it is now almost 27-28% of the Nifty, it will bear the brunt of that. That?s more a technical correction which is seeping in because of the usual results and impending issues in the backdrop of a good run-up.


Q: What are your thoughts on the premarket opening session? Some random rates are what we saw yesterday. How would you read into this?


A: It will take a little time before things settle down and start being reflective of the opening session and people are still probably getting adjusted to it at the moment. They probably don?t carry a lot of weight at the moment.


Q: What did you make of Larsen & Toubro?s numbers? Are you relieved that finally there is some sort of traction that we are seeing in execution in terms of orders for L&T?


A: Absolutely correct. Most of the us are not only relieved but are happy that in a quarter where the number of days when it rained were the highest, in terms of execution it has caught up very well and that will lead to a good overall up-gradation in full year numbers.


Q: Do you track Sesa Goa and how do you think the stock will react to its results?


A: We do track it but I haven?t had a chance to look at the results as of now. What I can make out is that the volume for this quarter is nothing great and realization also is down. The bigger worry for Sesa Goa would rather still be the apportionment of a large part of money for a slightly different business and I don?t think that?s going to go in a hurry.


Q: What would you do with some of the technology stocks now? How much of a concern is the currency for you and would you still continue to hold this space?


A: Currency is definitely one of the concerns and it will keep on accentuating as we move forward. We think some of these flows from FIIs are more secular rather than tactical. As we approach next year maybe once again the new limit for debt will come up. A lot of money will try to enter India.


Apart from that, the only thing which goes in favour if at all is the fact that they are huge cash generating machines. We feel from hereon the market will perform and not outperform.


Q: From the entire auto space what would your best pick be, what would your top preference be and how would you approach earnings season?


A: From the earnings point of view I feel Bajaj Auto?s numbers would be really good. Apart from the topline growth, margins also would expand. We think they will continue to post very robust numbers probably ahead of market and analyst expectations.


Mahindra will also have good numbers because in this quarter, most of them benefited out of the slightly softer commodity prices and huge volumes growth. We will remain cautious, in terms of results for Hero Honda and Maruti.

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